{"id":11919,"date":"2016-09-29T17:05:26","date_gmt":"2016-09-29T21:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/?p=11919"},"modified":"2016-09-30T09:25:32","modified_gmt":"2016-09-30T13:25:32","slug":"dark-horses-shooting-stars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/dark-horses-shooting-stars\/","title":{"rendered":"Dark Horses, Shooting Stars"},"content":{"rendered":"

October 2016 | view this story as a .pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

Investor oracle Evan Livada on trends to watch as we race to 2017.<\/span><\/h3>\n

Interview with Evan Livada By Colin W. Sargent<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"dark-horses-oct16\"We\u2019ve sat down across the last decades to talk about the top 100 businesses in Maine. Since so many of these have shifted their headquarters out of state, we\u2019d like to get right to the dessert. What do you think is going on?<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n

Portland is ridiculous. It\u2019s getting almost over the top. You go to Commercial Street and you can\u2019t park, you can\u2019t move, you\u2019ve got visitors from all over the world, you\u2019ve got ZZ Top playing on Maine State Pier and moe. and Bob Dylan out on Thompson\u2019s Point. We\u2019re a global mecca because people are reading everywhere that Portland is the greatest place going in the world. You\u2019ve got cruise ships, two at a time, releasing 5,000 passengers onto the waterfront.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the shooting stars.<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Americans love their pets, their credit cards, and their beer. Idexx Laboratories, Inc. is up almost 50 percent year-to-date (YTD). From a low of 63.48 in January to 115.06 a week ago. This is because they have shown consistent growth. Idexx trades at almost 49 times earning. If you invested $10,000 invested into Idexx five years ago, it would be worth $30,000 today. That\u2019s what Wall Street likes. Revenue growth in 2015 was 7.8 percent. It\u2019s going to rise 10.16 percent in 2016 and 8.6 percent in 2017, according to analysts. If Idexx has a hiccup, as it did a few years ago, it can get creamed, but it comes roaring back. The animal health market is expected to grow forever and forever<\/em>, and they\u2019re into the human medical testing business, too. It\u2019s a wonderful thing for a Maine based company like this. They have 40 percent of $3.3 billion market. The risk is competition. If their market share decreases a little bit, all these momentum investors will bail.<\/span><\/p>\n

Could Idexx have started in the 1920s?<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Nobody knew anything about medical test kits in the 1920s. People want immediate responses<\/em> today. That\u2019s why they\u2019re a shooting star.<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s up with WEX? According to Bangor Daily News<\/em>, \u201cIt reached a deal to purchase a fleet fuel processing competitor for $1.1 billion\u201d last year and \u201cbought ExxonMobil\u2019s European fuel card business\u2026\u201d the year before.\u00a0 <\/span>But the newspaper reports significant IT outsourcing: \u201ca net loss of 25 IT positions based in South Portland as of April 2016.\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

WEX started in 1983 as Wright Express, with their fleet card. It\u2019s been publicly traded since 2005. In 2008, the low was $8.21 in November. It\u2019s currently trading at $104.59. The five-year return has been 165.8 percent. All they do is transaction reporting, but they have revenues close to $800 million. They\u2019re projecting $975 million to $1 billion in revenues for 2016. They\u2019re worldwide now, with offices in US, Australia, Brazil, Britain, Italy, France, Germany, Norway, and Singapore. They went from 700 employees in 2009 to over 2,500 employees across the globe. Of this number more than 700 are based in Maine. They\u2019ve bought competitors, but there\u2019s plenty of competition. I know they\u2019re growing exponentially and killing it. The question is, can somebody go somewhere else and get the same thing? I don\u2019t see it happening. <\/span><\/p>\n

How does their growth affect Maine?<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Regarding the outsourcing, they\u2019re in a position to say, \u2018Why pay someone here $80,000 a year when you can get someone offshore to do it for $15,000?\u2019 <\/span><\/p>\n

But doesn\u2019t WEX\u2019s data include government fleet-card information? Are there security issues about some of this data being held outside the U.S? See<\/strong> http:\/\/www.wexinc.com\/fleet\/government-fleets\/how-it-works\/ <\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019m out of that loop, but they have shown their commitment here by greatly expanding their campus near the Maine Mall.<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

So the craft breweries are truly shooting stars?<\/strong>
\n<\/span>I think Mainers love their beer more than lobsters. There are breweries everywhere\u20135.9 breweries per 100,000 adult drinkers in Portland. Matador Networks says Portland is the top craft brewery city in the world. Obviously, Geary\u2019s was the first in town. Shipyard has it killed. In Florida, people were drinking Shipyard\u2019s \u201cPumpkinhead\u201d in the summertime. In 1994, Rob Todd started Allagash. Today, Allagash White is considered one of the best beers there is. Near R\u00ed R\u00e1 on the Portland waterfront, they\u2019re charging up to $7 dollars for an Allagash white\u2013and getting it.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of my golfing buddies went to Bissell Bros. on Thompson\u2019s Point and had to wait in line for an hour for some of their small-batch products. They limited it to two six packs he could buy. They didn\u2019t even exist<\/em> five years ago. <\/span><\/p>\n

It all comes down to this. Just ask at the Jetport\u2013we have people flying<\/em> into Portland to drink beer. Talk about a culture shifting gears. Foul Mouth Brewery in Mill Creek used to be<\/em> an auto garage. There are 22 breweries in Greater Portland right now. They all seem to be thriving. If you go into any local bar, all the local breweries are favored. I don\u2019t think the margins are that big, and the breweries don\u2019t hesitate to charge it to all the restaurants. Now there\u2019s some product loyalty.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>Who doesn\u2019t love a dark horse?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

People in Maine love their rock and roll, their skiing, and their bagels. My No. 1 Dark Horse is the former Cumberland County Civic Center, now known as Cross Arena. If they can\u2019t\u2013without the Pirates\u2013make a fortune, they\u2019re nuts. Spectra, who is running it, runs venues all over the country. They\u2019re owned by Comcast. Spectra has the connections to get every act<\/em> here now. Phish, Kiss, rising musical stars, there\u2019s a huge profit margin on this. You could have a group of morons sitting on the board in of Cross Arena now, and it still wouldn\u2019t matter. If you can\u2019t get the Jehova\u2019s Witnesses to come, and every other organization, well\u2013the convention center should be filled every day with a convention. Not only not, but to draw from a bigger fan base, UMaine should play half their games in Cross Arena to draw from Boston alumni and north. I say the \u2018Civic Center\u2019 is going to make it and make it big. If it doesn\u2019t make it, I\u2019ll be amazed.
\n<\/span>
\n<\/span>Who\u2019s the next dark horse?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Saddleback Mountain. Chris Farmer, the GM for the last five years, went to law school and has deftly positioned it for immediate growth. They have 6,300-plus acres. They have 66 trails already, with all kinds of permits for growth. They have the infrastructure. Fantastic. But here\u2019s the telling statistic: They have 120 condos there but permits for 900 more<\/em>. The Berry Family, the resort\u2019s previous owners, invested close to $40 million in Saddleback before it closed. They made what\u2019s about to happen possible. Two years ago, Ski<\/em> Magazine rated Saddleback as No. 1 customer satisfaction in the East. Jackson Hole was No. 1 in the West. Saddleback has a new lodge. It\u2019s a gorgeous resort.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>It\u2019s beautiful. But if there\u2019s so much upside, why hasn\u2019t Les Otten bought it?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Les Otten is too busy doing his project at The Balsams with, I guarantee you, none of his money up front. Some say Saddleback is an unripe banana. But I hear they are talking to someone with deep pockets. I think they\u2019re going to pull it off, and it will be a tremendous success. It would have been a total shame if they\u2019d just let the business rot. It\u2019s a great location. Chris is a terrific manager.<\/span><\/p>\n

And dark horse No. three is\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

South Portland. Mill Creek is just on the beginnings of what could be as nice as the Old Port or better, because they\u2019re starting from Scratch. Scratch Bakeries is creating a huge following. They\u2019re the best in the world. It\u2019s like the soup Nazi, except with bagels. The small-business culture of Ocean Avenue and the attractive commercial rents and streetfront retail set all of this up. It\u2019s the next big area. South Portland has so much potential. The Armory is fully leased. Look at the tank farms. The pipeline has virtually shut down piping to Montreal. Who knows? When Clean Harbors clears out all the tanks, maybe they\u2019ll they turn the tank farms into pot farms starting this November. Few people know how big the pot business is in Maine. If they legalize it, it\u2019s big, big money. Wall Street\u2019s investing in it, in publicly traded stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a marijuana mutual fund?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Not yet, but there are publicly traded stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

You\u2019re gifted at calling shots. You predicted the economy would tank years ago\u2013before it happened\u2013because you were worried about \u201csub-prime slime.\u201d So you\u2019re really high on this area this second?<\/span><\/p>\n

I think we have the physical beauty, the islands. It\u2019s enchanting. Go out on a little ferry boat to Long Island. New York has eight million people and it has islands, too, but\u2026 We have the panache and the quaintness and the salt here. You throw in all these tapas restaurants, DiMillos, the craft breweries, it\u2019s wonderful. It would cost you a fortune to start a craft brewery in Boston now. We have two of the top 50 breweries in the country, in volume sold, Shipyard and Allagash. The new hotels near the waterfront are blending into a really nice area. The tourism and service industry in Portland invigorate each other. When you see not one but two huge cruise ships coming in, it\u2019s really something. The prosperity is already here. Otherwise, who\u2019s paying $800,000 to buy a condo overlooking the fire station on Munjoy Hill? <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

October 2016
\nInvestor oracle Evan Livada on trends to watch as we race to 2017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11924,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[111],"class_list":["post-11919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","tag-october-2016"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11919"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11982,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11919\/revisions\/11982"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11924"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.portlandmonthly.com\/portmag\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}